Increasing forecasting accuracy of trend demand by non-linear optimization of the smoothing constant
نویسندگان
چکیده
INTRODUCTION The pharmaceutical industry is both blessed and cursed by data. There are a number of data sources and inputs available for Time Series (TS) analysis: total prescriptions, new prescriptions, total units, units by stock keeping unit, units by strength, days of therapy, patient days, retail units, hospital units, sales to wholesalers, retail pharmacy inventories and so forth[1]. In this paper actual sales data of a blockbuster product of a local pharmaceutical industry is used and analyzed by using the EXCEL spreadsheets. Planning Manager, Renata Limited, Dhaka-1216, Bangladesh *Corresponding email: [email protected]
منابع مشابه
Estimation of Smoothing Constant of Minimum Variance Searching Optimal Parameters of Weight in the Case of Medical Operating equipment and supplies
AbstractIn industries, how to improve forecasting accuracy such as sales, shipping is an important issue. There are many researches made on this. In this paper, a hybrid method is introduced and plural methods are compared. Focusing that the equation of exponential smoothing method(ESM) is equivalent to (1,1) order ARMA model equation, new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponenti...
متن کاملAn Analysis of the Newly Built Forecasting Method in the Case of Sanitary Materials Data
Abstract—In industries, how to improve forecasting accuracy such as sales, shipping is an important issue. Correct sales forecasting is inevitable in industries. There are many researches made on this. In this paper, a hybrid method is introduced and plural methods are compared. Focusing that the equation of exponential smoothing method(ESM) is equivalent to (1,1) order ARMA model equation, a n...
متن کاملA Hybrid Method to Improve Forecasting Accuracy Utilizing Genetic Algorithm –An Application to the Data of Operating equipment and supplies
In industries, how to improve forecasting accuracy such as sales, shipping is an important issue. There are many researches made on this. In this paper, a hybrid method is introduced and plural methods are compared. Focusing that the equation of exponential smoothing method(ESM) is equivalent to (1,1) order ARMA model equation, new method of estimation of smoothing constant in exponential smoot...
متن کاملA Hybrid Method to Improve Forecasting Accuracy in the Case of Sanitary Materials Data
Sales forecasting is a starting point of supply chain management, and its accuracy influences business management significantly. In industries, how to improve forecasting accuracy such as sales, shipping is an important issue. In this paper, a hybrid method is introduced and plural methods are compared. Focusing that the equation of exponential smoothing method (ESM) is equivalent to (1,1) orde...
متن کاملThe Impact of Forecasting Methods Combination for Reducing Bullwhip Effect in a Four-level Supply Chain under Variable Demand
Bullwhip effect in a supply chain, makes inefficiencies such as excess inventory and overdue orders during the chain. These problems can be reduced by appropriate predictions. Forecasting must be done in all levels of a supply chain. This research addresses the problem of optimal combination of forecasting to reduce the bullwhip effect in a four-level supply chain when demand is variable. For t...
متن کامل